“Have we seen the bottom?” It’s one of the most common questions we’re getting right now about the market. Every percentage point we move away from our mid-June low makes it feel more likely that we won’t see those numbers again.

When we get this question, we like to joke that if we knew, we’d be on a beach somewhere. The truth is we just don’t know. Is this a bear market rally? Or was it the start of a new bull market? There are numerous factors at play that muddy the waters toward finding an answer.

We must be headed for a recession, right? It may feel that way if you’ve been watching or reading the news for the last several months. But what if we’re not in a recession? In this article we’ll look at what defines a recession and some of the factors that can play a role in tipping the scales.